Affordable Care Act Repeal Begins But Raises Many Questions
Congress has begun taking the first steps toward repealing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) with a Senate vote on January 12. The vote was on a fiscal year 2017 budget reconciliation measure and followed party lines with 51 Republicans voting in favor to 47 Democrats opposed. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) also voted no, in part over concerns that GOP leaders have not committed to a plan to replace the Affordable Care Act after it is repealed. The bill was expected to go to the House of Representatives for a vote on Friday January 13 and be passed easily. The reconciliation bill contains instructions to several House and Senate Committees to work out the details of repeal and report back with legislation to implement repeal by the end of January.
A large part of the ACA can be repealed through reconciliation, which only needs the support of 51 senators - an easier threshold to achieve than the 60 votes required by most other pieces of legislation in the Senate. Among the elements of the ACA that are targeted for removal are the individual penalties for non-coverage, premium supports and tax credits making coverage affordable, the Medicaid expansions with federal matching funds that have been adopted by over 30 states and taxes on high-income households and the health care industry that helped pay for the ACA's coverage expansions.
The dilemma facing the Republican leadership is that they and President-elect Trump have promised to offer a replacement health care proposal in conjunction with ACA repeal. They have also offered assurances that many of the popular provisions in ACA will be retained, including the protections against discriminatory health insurance policies and coverage of dependents up to age 26. Some in the leadership have suggested that the effective date of repeal could be delayed for several years while a replacement plan was developed and put in place. Aides to House leaders have cautioned that any replacement legislation will only be partial because of the need to get changes through the Senate with 51 votes and the reconciliation rules that require measures to have a budgetary impact. Developing a more comprehensive replacement to the ACA would need 60 Senate votes and significant Democratic support.
According to some analyses, removing the coverage mandates and premium subsidies could cause turmoil in the individual insurance market as some companies that had expected more customers pull out and those companies that remain are forced to raise premiums to account for uncertainty. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that eliminating the individual mandate would cause premiums in the individual market to rise by 20 percent. This in turn would likely cause large numbers of younger, healthier individuals to drop their insurance, leaving people with serious health conditions to remain in the individual market facing ever increasing premiums.
Other effects of passage of the reconciliation bill as outlined by the Urban Institute include:
- An increase in the number of uninsured people from 28.9 million to 58.7 million in 2019, an increase of 103 percent. The share of nonelderly people without insurance would increase from 11 percent to 21 percent, a higher rate of un-insured than before the ACA because of the disruption to the non-group insurance market. Of the 29.8 million newly uninsured, 22.5 million people become uninsured as a result of eliminating the premium tax credits, the Medicaid expansion, and the individual mandate. The additional 7.3 million people become uninsured because of the near collapse of the non-group or individual insurance market.
- A reduction in numbers of those covered by Medicaid or the Childrens’ Health Insurance Program by 12.9 million people.
- A reduction in Federal government spending on health care for the non-elderly [including many people with disabilities under age 65] by $109 billion in 2019 and by $1.3 trillion from 2019 to 2028 because the Medicaid expansion, premium tax credits, and cost-sharing assistance would be eliminated.
Several amendments were offered during the Senate budget reconciliation debate by Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Bob Casey (D-PA) to protect Medicaid, Medicare and other safety net programs. They were all defeated on partisan votes with only one or two Republicans voting in their favor. Once the committees return with their plans at the end of January, a clearer picture of any replacement legislation will emerge. Subsequent actions on health reform are likely to arise in the context of tax reform proposals and possibly reauthorization of the Childrens' Health Insurance Program. As deliberations on the fate of ACA continue, PVA will continue working with its allies in the disability community and in Congress to raise with policymakers the severe, adverse impact on people with disabilities that will attend repeal of the ACA.
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